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Observations on the French Presidential Election

Investment Insights: Observations on the French Presidential Election

French presidential elections concluded yesterday, with En Marche! candidate Emmanuel Macron soundly defeating the populist National Front party candidate Marine Le Pen. Two interesting takeaways:

The accuracy of French polling. While markets have been suspicious of polling after Brexit and US Presidential election misses, French polls generally got it right. Although there has been minimal polling for the upcoming parliamentary elections on June 11 and 18, markets may have more confidence with future polling reports.

Losses for populist candidates. The French elections cap off the third loss (including Austria and Netherlands) for populist candidates in the last five months. While populist movements will likely remain active in Europe, this outcome will be a sigh of relief for markets, which have been on edge with uncertainties surrounding this election.

For the full commentary, download the PDF.

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